As the NFL 2025 season barrels toward the fantasy football playoffs, Week 10 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for managers looking to secure their postseason spots. But here’s where it gets controversial: some of the biggest names in fantasy might not be the safest bets this week. Let’s dive into the start 'em, sit 'em analysis, with a special focus on Marvin Harrison Jr.’s evolving role—and why it’s sparking debate among fantasy circles.
Quarterback
Start: Daniel Jones, Colts
Daniel Jones had a rough outing in Week 9, turning the ball over five times against the Steelers. Yet, he still managed 17.1 fantasy points—a testament to his resilience. And this is the part most people miss: despite that meltdown, Jones ranks seventh in EPA and eighth in CPOE. With Indy’s implied team total sitting at 27.5 points (third-highest this week), he’s a solid start. Plus, his rushing ability—third-most carries inside the five among quarterbacks—adds a layer of upside that’s hard to ignore.
Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams
The Rams are doubling down on their passing game, ranking in the top five for pass rate over expected and neutral situation pace. Stafford’s aDOT (average depth of target) is second only to Sam Darnold among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. Facing a San Francisco defense that ranks 25th in EPA per dropback allowed, Stafford is poised for a big week. Vegas agrees, projecting the Rams for 27 points.
Sit: Michael Penix, Falcons
Penix has shown flashes, including a three-touchdown game against the Patriots. But this week, he faces a tough Colts defense in Germany. Indy ranks ninth in EPA per dropback allowed and just added Sauce Gardner from the Jets. Here’s the kicker: Penix hasn’t cracked the top 10 quarterbacks in any week this season, and the Falcons aren’t built for shootouts. His ceiling is limited, making him a risky play.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
The Jaguars’ offense has been struggling, especially with injuries to key receivers like Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. Last week, they leaned heavily on the run, posting a -9% pass rate over expected. This week, they face the Texans, who lead the league in EPA per dropback allowed and have given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Lawrence’s upside is capped here.
Running Back
Start: Rico Dowdle, Panthers
Dowdle finally took over the Panthers’ backfield in Week 9, out-carrying Chuba Hubbard 25-5 and racking up 130 yards and two touchdowns. He played 74% of snaps and earned an 80% carry share—numbers that rival Hubbard’s absence. As 5.5-point favorites against the Saints, Dowdle is a strong RB2 with top-five potential.
Start: Jaylen Warren, Steelers
Warren has reclaimed the lead role in Pittsburgh, seeing 78% of the team’s carries over his last three starts. He’s consistently hitting 15+ touches and has every inside-the-five carry in that span. His floor is as reliable as it gets for an RB2.
Sit: Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Tracy’s moment in the sun was short-lived, as Devin Singletary has reclaimed the Giants’ lead back role. Singletary out-carried and out-snapped Tracy in Week 9, and his per-carry metrics are superior. Even in a favorable matchup against the 49ers, Tracy’s role is too uncertain to trust.
Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders
Croskey-Merritt’s snap share dipped below 50% for the first time since Week 4, and his carry share followed suit. With Jayden Daniels out and Marcus Mariota under center, the Commanders’ offense is in trouble. Facing a potential blowout against the Lions, Croskey-Merritt’s fantasy value is on thin ice.
Wide Receiver
Start: Zay Flowers, Ravens
Flowers had a quiet week despite Lamar Jackson’s return, but Week 10 sets up perfectly for a rebound. The Vikings play man coverage on 75% of their snaps, and Flowers leads the Ravens in yards per route run (2.4) and targets per route run (.24) against man. He’s due for a breakout.
Start: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
But here’s where it gets controversial: Jacoby Brissett’s start at quarterback has been a game-changer for Harrison. Brissett targets all levels of the field more effectively than Kyler Murray, and Harrison just posted a career-high in receptions. Is this the start of a new era for Harrison, or just a fluke? Either way, he’s a must-start against a vulnerable defense.
Sit: Jameson Williams, Lions
Williams had a decent Week 9, but his usage remains concerning. He’s only targeted on 13% of his routes and ranks 57th in yards per route run. In a game against the Commanders that might not see high passing volume, Williams is a risky flex play.
Sit: Keenan Allen, Chargers
Allen’s role has shrunk dramatically with Oronde Gadsden’s emergence. Over the past two weeks, he’s run just 52% of routes and earned an 18% target share. Without red zone involvement, Allen’s floor is too low to trust.
Tight End
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid is a stud. He leads all tight ends in yards per route run (2.96) and ranks second in targets per route run (.24). His efficiency is off the charts, and he’s a locked-in TE1 every week.
Start: Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
Fannin out-snapped David Njoku in Week 9, running 72% of routes and earning a 23% target share. With the Browns targeting tight ends more than any team, Fannin has TE1 upside even with Njoku in the mix.
Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens
Isaiah Likely is cutting into Andrews’ role, and it’s showing. Andrews ran just 63% of routes and earned a 10% target share in Week 9. Unless he finds the end zone, his fantasy value is in jeopardy.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
Freiermuth’s 28.1-point outburst in Week 7 was an anomaly. Since then, his route rate and target share have plummeted. He’s not a reliable starter until his usage stabilizes.
Final Thoughts
Week 10 is all about capitalizing on matchups and avoiding traps. But here’s the real question: Are you bold enough to bench a big name for a breakout candidate? Let’s hear it in the comments—who’s in your lineup, and who’s riding the bench?
